A trio of spring elections provided early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump on Tuesday, as Democrats rallied against his efforts to slash the federal government and the outsize role being played by billionaire Elon Musk in the early days of his new administration.
In the marquee race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, the conservative judge endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk and his groups to the tune of $21 million lost by 10 percentage points in a state Trump won in November. While Florida Republicans held two of the most pro-Trump House districts in the country, both candidates underperformed Trump's November margins.
The elections — the first major contests since Trump's return to power — were seen as an early measure of voter sentiment as Trump works with unprecedented speed to upend the federal government, clashing with the courts and seeking revenge as he tests the bounds of presidential power.
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Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel makes his concession speech Tuesday at his election night party in Pewaukee, Wis.
The party that loses the presidency in November typically picks up seats in the next midterm elections, and Tuesday's results provided hope for Democrats — who faced a barrage of internal and external criticism about their response to Trump — that they can follow that trend.
Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday's Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races where Trump is not on the ballot.
"We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now," he said in a social media post, referring to low-propensity voters who don't regularly cast ballots. "The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy."
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford speaks Tuesday after winning the election in Madison, Wis.
Major shifts in Wisconsin
Trump won Wisconsin in November by 0.8 percentage points, or fewer than 30,000 votes. In the first major test since he took office in January, the perennial battleground state shifted significantly to the left, and not only in typical Democratic strongholds.
Sauk County, northwest of the state capital of Madison, is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes. Sauk shifted 16 percentage points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal backed by national Democrats and billionaire donors like George Soros.
Besides strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.
Turnout was just under 50%, a full 10 percentage points higher than the previous record high for a Wisconsin Supreme Court election, set just two years ago.
In interviews with dozens of voters across the state, many Democrats suggested without prompting that their vote was as much if not more of a repudiation of Trump's first months in office than a decision on the direction of the state high court.
Elon Musk appears at a rally Sunday in Green Bay, Wis.
"This is our chance to say no," said Linda Grassl, a retired OB-GYN registered nurse, after voting at the Waunakee Public Library corridor Tuesday.
"We have to fight, and this is where the fight is today," agreed Theresa Peer, a 49-year-old business-owner born and raised in Milwaukee, who called the election a "fight for our democracy."
She said she hoped a Crawford win would serve as a "symbol of opposition" to the Trump administration, particularly on the issues of women's reproductive rights and slashed education spending.
Others disliked the richest man in the world playing such a prominent role.
"I don't like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in," said Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old Milwaukee security guard. "They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have."
Republican candidate Randy Fine, right, walks past signs supporting President Donald Trump before meeting with supporters Tuesday in Ormond Beach, Fla.
Florida vote
Trump had better luck in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine won his special election in the 6th District to replace Mike Waltz, who stepped down to serve as Trump's national security adviser. But Fine beat his Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, by 14 percentage points less than five months after Waltz won the district by 33.
Jimmy Patronis, the state's chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to win the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz but also underperformed Gaetz's last margin of victory.
The pair of wins gave Republicans a 220-213 margin in the House of Representatives.
For voters in both districts, the clear draw was Trump.
Teresa Horton, 72, didn't know much at all about Tuesday's election — but said she didn't need to.
"I don't even know these people that are on there," she said of her ballot. "I just went with my ticket."
Performer Kid Rock holds a signed executive order regarding ticket scalping Monday after President Donald Trump signed it in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.
Brenda Ray, 75, a retired nurse, said she didn't know a lot about Patronis, either, but cast her ballot for him because she believes he'll "vote with our president."
"That's all we're looking for," she said.
Both Patronis and Fine were badly outraised by their Democratic challengers. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, argued that what was a GOP concern before Tuesday night had been a sign of the party's strength.
"The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump's America First agenda, and their votes can't be bought by national Democrats," he said in a statement.
